Bayesian estimation of quantile distributions

Use of Bayesian modelling and analysis has become commonplace in many disciplines (finance, genetics and image analysis, for example). Many complex data sets are collected which do not readily admit standard distributions, and often comprise skew and kurtotic data. Such data is well-modelled by the very flexibly-shaped distributions of the quantile distribution family, whose members are defined by the inverse of their cumulative distribution functions and rarely have analytical likelihood functions defined. Without explicit likelihood functions, Bayesian methodologies such as Gibbs sampling cannot be applied to parameter estimation for this valuable class of distributions without resorting to numerical inversion. Approximate Bayesian computation provides an alternative approach requiring only a sampling scheme for the distribution of interest, enabling easier use of quantile distributions under the Bayesian framework. Parameter estimates for simulated and experimental data are presented.     

浅析我国应对反倾销之诉的策略

目前,我国是世界上遭遇反倾销案件调查情形较为严重的国家.不仅遭受的案件数排在世界首位,而且遭受反倾销案件最终裁定的比率也位居世界第一.这种现状给我国的国际经济交往带来困境与危害,最终影响我国的出口贸易.但是,究其原因,并非我国客观上实施了大规模倾销行为,而是由于在裁定过程中我国所遭遇的"倾销"之确定标准有失公允与客观,例如我国的市场经济地位被一些国家所否认.针对如此困境,宜从国际、国内两方面实施应对策略:一方面通过国际方面的谈判与协调中力争获得相对公平的裁定标准;另一方面通过政策的导向及国内相关机构的配合与服务促进作为应诉主体的企业切实强化其应诉技能.     

关于农民市场风险的一种表述 ———市场“规则”与“场所”的关系逻辑

在社会学视野里，市场风险是在市场作为一种社会制度的现代变迁中被问题化的。这个变迁过程是市场的两个基本含义“规则”与“场所”从统一到分离的过程，市场“规则”与“场所”的分离使得市场风险成为现代市场制度的内在因素。中国农民所处市场的“规则”与“场所”的分离是在始于20世纪70年代末的农村改革中逐渐实现的；从那时起，中国农民开始承受现代市场带来的市场风险。     

On group divisible response surface (GDRS) designs

In this paper some experimental situations are identified corresponding to which suitable response surface designs do not exist. A class of response surface designs is introduced to cope with these situations. Their analysis with and without blocking and methods of construction is discussed.     

论我国立法制度的嬗变及新发展

我国对立法行为的规范基本上经历了从宪法和组织法授权型规定、程序化规定到单行法律或法规规定,最后发展到法典化这样四个阶段.《立法法》作为规范立法行为的基本法律,对于健全社会主义法制、规范立法程序、提高立法质量、明确立法权限、维护法制的统一与尊严、完善法学体系具有极为深远的意义.《立法法》实现了立法制度的法典化,充实了程序性规范,增强了立法的民主性及可操作性,它根据社会实际需要,扩大了立法主体的范围,同时对地方立法权、行政立法权给予了一定的制约,加强了对公民权利的保护,并且增加了法规、规章之间的冲突裁决机制,完善了立法监督制度.《立法法》是我国立法制度的新发展.     

A new response-adaptive design for continuous treatment responses for phase III clinical trials

A new response-adaptive design, applicable for general class of continuous response distributions, is proposed. The allocation design is studied both theoretically and numerically and compared with some existing procedures. The applicability of the proposed procedure is also illustrated using real life data sets.     

Design and analysis of mixture experiments with process variable

A mixture experiment is an experiment in which the response is assumed to depend on the relative proportions of the ingredients present in the mixture and not on the total amount of the mixture. In such experiment process, variables do not form any portion of the mixture but the levels changed could affect the blending properties of the ingredients. Sometimes, the mixture experiments are costly and the experiments are to be conducted in less number of runs. Here, a general method for construction of efficient mixture experiments in a minimum number of runs by the method for projection of efficient response surface design onto the constrained region is obtained. The efficient designs with a less number of runs have been constructed for 3rd, 4th, and 5th component of mixture experiments with one process variable.     

证据法的公平竞技精神之美国样本与中国图景

公平是法律所追求的价值目标之一,庭审中的公平竞技则是法律公平的现实写照。庭审中要确保公平竞技有赖于审判的制度背景。陪审团审判制度和对抗式诉讼模式是美国法庭中公平竞技的制度保障。除此之外．公平竞技的贯彻还与美国《联邦证据规则》密不可分。可采性规则为公平竞技提供了基础,交叉询问机制为公平竞技提供了技术规则．被告人品性证据规则为公平竞技设置了合理界限。美国《联邦证据规则》所彰显的公平竞技精神为我国当前的证据立法提供了现实样本。     

强制性冲突法和任意性冲突法理论初探

冲突法对法官和当事人是任意性规范还是具有强制性的拘束力?这是一个具有重要现实意义的问题.普通法国家一般认为冲突法是任意性法律.这些国家的法院总是适用法院地法,除非当事人一方要求适用外国法作为准据法.罗马法国家一般认为冲突法是强制性法规,这些国家的法院有义务按照法院地的冲突规范适用准据法.我国冲突规范主要规定于《中华人民共和国民法通则》之中,因为《中华人民共和国民法通则》不是任意性的,因此我国冲突法不应是任意性规范.但我国一些地方法院的司法实践却不时将我国冲突法作为任意性法规对待,这不仅有损于我国司法在国际社会的形象,而且损害了我国冲突法的健康发展.因此我们必须在立法和司法实践中明确:我国的冲突规范不是任意性规范,它对所有人民法院均具有拘束力.     

《太上感应篇》:宗教文本与社会互动的典范

以道教理念为核心，《太上感应篇》融汇了佛教和儒学的若干内容，大约成于北宋仁、徽二宗之际。其形成当与中国宗教思想的运动和平民的社会化密切相关。《太上感应篇》既是一套伦理系统，也是一套解释系统，还是一套仪式系统，在中国社会近代化的过程中具有非同一般的影响。从一个纯粹的道教修仙文本转写成为一部化俗济世的善书，再演变成为一本全面的道德和社会手册，《太上感应篇》为我们揭示了宗教文本与社会的复杂的纠结关系──宗教文本的转写来自于社会的吁求，而一经转写，它又反而成为了社会再造的依据。